Traditionally a key vote bank for sitting presidents, Mt Kenya’s apparent internal divisions now pose a credible threat to the President’s re-election prospects.
President Ruto’s initial alliance with key Mt Kenya political figures helped secure his victory in the 2022 election, but shifting loyalties and strained relationships are now shaking that foundation.
Recently, some of his erstwhile loyalists have openly expressed disillusionment with his leadership and political strategy.
Central to this strain is the fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose political influence in Mt Kenya once bolstered Ruto’s appeal in the region.
The two have since parted ways politically, and Gachagua has become a vocal critic — claiming that Ruto has miscalculated the politics of the mountain and has lost touch with his former core supporters.
The underlying tension is not just personal, but deeply political. Gachagua — along with other political actors — contends that Ruto underestimated the importance of maintaining strong regional representation and respect among Mt Kenya’s power brokers.
Other leaders in the region have similarly alluded to their willingness to withhold support should their own political ambitions or demands — such as assurances on leadership positions — go unmet.
In eastern Mt Kenya, for instance, local MPs recently linked their backing for Ruto’s re-election to the continued role of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, signalling that unity is not automatic but conditional.
The political calculus in Mt Kenya is not uniform. Government supporters argue that President Ruto still enjoys “silent” support across much of the region’s electorate — a view buoyed by recent by-election results where the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) secured key seats.
However, this narrative exists alongside deep public pessimism.
Polling reveals a growing perception across Kenya that Ruto’s re-election path is narrowing — with citizens in historically supportive regions, including Mt Kenya, expressing less confidence in his prospects than in past cycles.
While Ruto’s loyalists grapple with internal disputes, opposition leaders are increasingly trying to build a united front for 2027.
Figures such as Gachagua have become central to these realignment efforts, seeking to translate local disaffection into a broader national campaign against the incumbent.
Complicating matters are negotiations with key allied parties, including the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which itself has declared that it will not automatically endorse Ruto without tangible political guarantees.
The political landscape in Mt Kenya is evolving rapidly. Once seen as a monolithic vote bloc, the region is now a contested political terrain where loyalties are conditional and ambitions high.
For President Ruto, securing re-election will require not only consolidating support in traditional strongholds like Mt Kenya but also navigating complex alliances and addressing the grievances of powerful local leaders whose backs he once counted on.
In short: the same Mt Kenya region that helped launch Ruto to national power could now be one of the key battlegrounds shaping his political future — and possibly his defeat in the 2027 polls.
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